Nigeria Capital Market Surges To N160 Trillion As Moove Becomes Africa's Newest Unicorn

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Trend One: The naira and the capital market — an "omitted variable" turned national strategy

Nigeria's financial picture on August 12 was split between a thinning FX market and a deepening capital market.

Foreign exchange turnover on the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) fell to $185 million on August 11, the lowest in 11 weeks, down from $646.51 million a day earlier. The number of deals dropped from 348 to 186, and interbank deals fell from 182 to 47. The naira closed around N1,365 per dollar. Against this, external reserves rose about $198 million in the first eight days of August, reaching $52.141 billion on August 10.

On August 12, the Central Bank of Nigeria removed restrictions that barred NFEM participants and primary-auction bidders of government securities from its Discount Window. It also restored tenored repo operations (four to 90 days) and opened OMO participation to individuals, corporates and non-bank institutions. The same week, the CBN injected a net N5.21 trillion into the banking system, including a single N2.48 trillion OMO repayment on August 11.

The stock market pulled back after four straight gains, with market capitalisation shedding N1.17 trillion, led by MTN Nigeria and FBN Holdings. This retracement sits against a longer horizon: NGX Group told President Bola Tinubu that total listed equity value has risen from just under N30 trillion in 2023 to N160 trillion, with a projection of N230 trillion by year-end, while the All-Share Index has climbed from 52,000 to 244,000 points. Capital inflows rose 256.9% year-on-year to $2.82 billion in April, and the country added 900 new millionaires in a year.

Trend Two: Oil dividend and refining localisation — Dangote's African map

Oil prices moved on Middle East disruption: an Iran-backed Houthi attack on a cargo ship in the Bab el-Mandeb strait and a US strike off Pakistan pushed Brent crude up 0.9% to $89.69 a barrel on August 12. Nigeria's crude export earnings improved accordingly.

Nigeria's crude output held above 1.5 million barrels per day for a third straight month in July, at 1.505 million bpd, though this was a 4% decline from June's 1.53 million bpd. NUPRC attributed the drop to operational challenges at the Erha and Akpo fields. Including condensate, total hydrocarbon output reached 1.67 million bpd. Forcados terminal led at 322,340 bpd, followed by Bonny at 303,720 bpd.

The refining story centred on Dangote. The refinery rejected 15.5 million barrels of crude offered by local producers in Q2, citing prices above Platts and Argus benchmarks plus inadequate availability. Meanwhile, PENGASSAN President Festus Osifo, speaking on August 11 at the second West Africa Refined Fuel Market Conference in Abuja, called for free trade of Dangote products across Africa, arguing that opening borders improves energy security. NMDPRA pushed for an integrated West African fuel market and a regional pricing benchmark; S&P Global's head of Platts, Vera Blei, urged West African leaders to build that benchmark themselves. Dangote Refinery reached full designed capacity of 650,000 bpd earlier this year, exporting 456,000 tonnes of PMS across 12 cargoes in March to Côte d'Ivoire, Cameroon, Tanzania, Ghana and Togo.

Trend Three: Digital expansion against fragile physical infrastructure

Nigerian mobility company Moove completed a $250 million Series C round, becoming Africa's newest unicorn. Jumia raised $50 million anchored by a $25 million IFC investment on August 11, alongside Q2 revenue of $52 million, up 14% year-on-year; the company guided to Adjusted EBITDA breakeven and positive cash flow in Q4 2026. Marketplace revenue rose 34% to $28.8 million, and Adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed 36% to $8.7 million.

The CBN opened a second round of its regulatory sandbox for virtual asset service providers and fintechs, adding dedicated tracks for cryptocurrency and data-driven finance. Separately, the bank issued a payments-system circular introducing market-structure caps — any institution above 25% market share in card issuing or merchant acquiring is restricted to 15% in the other — plus full data localisation by January 1, 2027, and ultimate-beneficial-ownership disclosure. Nigeria currently spends about $850 million annually on offshore data hosting, with nearly 90% of its data held outside the country.

Against this digital build-out, the NCC reported more than 5,000 fibre cuts in the first six months of 2026, caused by road construction and civil works with limited coordination.

Trend Four: Regional politics and public health — elections, trade, outbreaks

Zambia's presidential race approached: incumbent Hakainde Hichilema, who took office in 2021 with about 59% of the vote, seeks a second term against Brian Mundubile. Nearly 70% of the population is under 30.

The US Senate approved a two-year extension of AGOA, maintaining duty-free access on more than 1,800 products from 32 sub-Saharan African nations until December 2028, with the prior agreement set to expire at the end of September.

Public-health and security pressures persisted across the region. Nigeria recorded 237 Lassa fever deaths in the first 30 epidemiological weeks of 2026, a case fatality rate of 23.7%. In the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, an Ebola outbreak traced to February has surpassed 2,000 deaths and 4,381 confirmed cases, with the Bundibugyo strain driving it and no approved vaccine. In Nigeria, clashes in Kebbi state killed 10 police officers, troops in Kogi rescued nine kidnapped drivers, and Plateau state forces repelled an armed ambush.